
Trade conflict puts strain on tourism and aviation
The ongoing trade conflict with the United States is leaving a significant mark on the global economy, with the tourism and aviation sectors particularly suffering. A recent analysis by credit insurer ACREDIA in collaboration with Allianz Trade warns of negative consequences such as rising costs for airlines, aircraft production bottlenecks, and a declining desire to travel, triggered by new US tariffs and political uncertainty. The analysis shows a significant decline in tourist numbers from Western Europe to the USA. In March 2025, the number of travelers from this region fell by 17 percent compared to the previous year. Tourists from Germany were particularly hard hit, with a decline of 28 percent, followed by Spain with 25 percent, according to data from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO). The United States has traditionally been an important destination for international tourism, underscoring the dependence of many airlines on US business. Here, too, weaker demand is making itself felt, with average load factors on transatlantic flights declining from 84 percent at the beginning of the year to just 78 percent. Despite these challenges, European airlines appear to be comparatively well positioned, according to ACREDIA CEO Michael Kolb. Lower kerosene prices and more stable margins suggest average revenue growth of ten percent for 2025. However, rising aircraft prices and limited production capacities are weighing on airlines. The global aircraft order backlog reached a historic high of around 2024 aircraft at the end of 17.000, leading to extended delivery times and projected price increases of up to 20 percent by 2030. Kolb emphasizes that current economic developments are abruptly slowing the aviation industry's post-pandemic recovery.