The armed conflict in Yemen, which has been ongoing for approximately ten years, is experiencing a significant escalation, now concentrated in the south of the country. Troops of the so-called Southern Transitional Council (STC), largely supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have gained control of all of southern Yemen and large parts of the east through recent advances.
This development, particularly the capture of large areas in the oil-rich province of Hadramaut, is leading to a reassessment of the military and political balance of power in the region. These events make the possibility of a renewed secession of South Yemen from the north—a scenario that last existed before the reunification of the two parts of the country in 1990—seem conceivable once again.
Complex power struggle in a divided country
Yemen has long been the scene of a complex civil war involving numerous actors and diverging interests. The main confrontation traditionally takes place between the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, which controls large parts of the north, and the Saudi-led coalition, which supports the internationally recognized but severely weakened government. Parallel to this main conflict, a separate power struggle has developed in the south of the country, in which Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – nominally allies against the Houthis – increasingly appear as rivals with differing objectives.
While Riyadh is primarily interested in curbing Iran's influence on its southern border and establishing a stable security situation, the Emirates are increasingly pursuing their own strategic objectives. These include, in particular, expanding their influence in the southern coastal regions to secure and optimize access to strategically important ports and shipping lanes in the region. The advance of the STC, a key institution representing UAE interests in Yemen, underscores this ambitious regional strategy.
Withdrawal of Saudi troops from Aden
The recent military shifts culminated in a remarkable move by Saudi Arabia. Over the weekend, Saudi fighters withdrew from the presidential palace and airport in the strategically important port city of Aden. Aden is the formal seat of the internationally recognized Yemeni government, whose existence and authority depend heavily on Riyadh's support. This withdrawal, confirmed by government sources but not yet officially announced, suggests Saudi Arabia's recognition of the changed power dynamics on the ground and signals a possible reassessment of its involvement in southern Yemen.
Experts view this Saudi withdrawal either as a tactical maneuver to de-escalate tensions with the STC or as a de facto acceptance of the growing dominance of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council in this key region. Regardless of the motivation, this move consolidates the STC's control over the most important city in the south.
Consequences for regional air traffic
The direct effects of the military and political escalation were immediately evident in the region's air traffic. Tensions in Aden led to a temporary closure of the airspace over the city and the cancellation of flights, leaving hundreds of passengers grounded for hours.
Airport sources indicated that the Saudi-led coalition was no longer able to issue the necessary permits for takeoffs and landings after its withdrawal. This suggests that control over the airport's aviation and security infrastructure was directly tied to the departing Saudi troops. The resumption of flight operations now depends on the establishment of new permitting procedures by the de facto controlling STC forces or coordination with the remaining authorities. The ability to guarantee security and issue clearances is a critical indicator of actual power in civil war zones.
Uncertain future: secession or new offensive
The immediate future of Yemen is uncertain following the STC's advance and depends on the decisions of key actors. With control over all of South Yemen, including areas like the oil-rich Hadramaut, the idea of a renewed partition of the country is becoming a real possibility. The historical division into North and South Yemen from 1967 to 1990 provides a political precedent for the separatist STC forces.
In parallel, the strengthened position of the STC could lead to a new military dynamic. One option is that the STC forces, or the supporting emirates, could launch a new offensive against the Houthi militia in the north. It is equally conceivable that the Houthi militia, in response to the changed situation, could resume its attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Saudi Arabia, which continues to work towards implementing a lasting ceasefire with the Houthis that has been in place since April 2022, must now redefine its strategic objectives in Yemen. The new reality in the south adds further complexity to these efforts and could complicate peace negotiations, as the interests of the new regional power center – the STC and the UAE – must now be given greater consideration.
The strategic importance of the conquered territories, particularly the Hadramaut, lies in their oil reserves. Control of these resources gives the STC and its backer, the UAE, considerable financial and political leverage. Furthermore, the southern ports and the Yemeni coastline are crucial for the UAE, as they play a key role in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden within its maritime trade and security strategy. Extending control into these areas serves to secure logistical and commercial interests in one of the world's most important shipping regions. The power shift in southern Yemen is therefore not merely an internal Yemeni conflict, but an indicator of the complex and evolving geostrategic ambitions of the Gulf states.