A strategically significant shift is looming on the horizon of geopolitical developments in South Asia. The Indian government has not only given the green light to the purchase of 26 Rafale naval fighter jets for its navy, but also plans to acquire 40 additional Rafale aircraft for its air force. Both acquisitions are part of intergovernmental agreements with France and could have a lasting impact on the balance of power in the region. Taken together, this would be the most significant increase in Western combat aircraft since the country's independence.
This twin initiative underscores India's intention to significantly enhance its military power in both the air and at sea amid growing tensions with neighboring countries and ongoing strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.
India's long road to the Rafale fleet
The Rafale's history in India began with the so-called MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) tender, which was announced in 2007. The goal was to acquire 126 modern multi-role combat aircraft for the Indian Air Force. After extensive testing and evaluations, the French Rafale model from Dassault Aviation prevailed over international competitors such as the Eurofighter, the F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Russian models. In 2012, the Rafale was officially announced as the winner.
But years of tough negotiations followed, particularly regarding local manufacturing in India and technology transfer. These uncertainties led to the cancellation of the original tender in 2015. Instead, a direct intergovernmental contract was concluded between France and India.
On September 23, 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then-French President François Hollande signed a contract for 36 Rafale aircraft worth approximately €7,8 billion. The final aircraft were delivered in December 2022. The Rafale fleet has been stationed in Ambala and Hasimara since then.
Armament as a response to strategic challenges
The planned expansion of the Indian Rafale fleet by a further 40 units is reportedly a so-called interim solution. The reason for this is the critical decline in squadron strength of the Indian Air Force, which currently has only around 31 operational squadrons – significantly fewer than the officially required 42.
A renewed government deal with France will allow the expansion to be implemented without a new tender process. This will not only allow for rapid delivery but also leverage the existing infrastructure for training, maintenance, and weapons integration established as part of the initial Rafale procurement.
In connection with the so-called MRFA (Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft) program, which was launched in 2018 and envisages the purchase of 114 additional combat aircraft, it remains unclear how the new procurement fits into the long-term modernization of the Air Force.
The Navy relies on the Rafale M
In parallel with the Air Force, the Indian Navy is pursuing its own modernization efforts. In early April 2025, the Indian Ministry of Defense approved the purchase of 26 Rafale naval fighter aircraft (Rafale M). The aircraft are to be deployed on the indigenously manufactured aircraft carrier INS Vikrant, which entered service in 2022. This move is part of a comprehensive upgrade of the Indian naval forces in the face of growing competition, particularly from China, in the Indian Ocean.
The order includes 22 single-seat combat aircraft and four two-seat trainers. The latter are not carrier-capable and are intended exclusively for land-based training purposes—a pragmatic decision, as a two-seat naval version was never realized in France for technical and financial reasons.
The Rafale M was chosen after extensive comparative tests with the F/A-18 Super Hornet from the US manufacturer Boeing. The capability of the so-called ski jump launch, as used on the INS Vikrant, played a particularly decisive role. The Rafale M met all requirements.
Armament and operational advantages
The newly acquired aircraft will be equipped with modern weapons, including Meteor air-to-air missiles with superior range and Exocet anti-ship missiles. The contract also includes comprehensive maintenance and training packages.
The deployment of the Rafale M on the INS Vikrant will significantly expand the Indian Navy's maritime capabilities. It will be capable of both long-range air superiority and precision strikes against sea and land targets. The aircraft are scheduled to enter service in 2029 and be completed by 2031.
India thus becomes the first export customer for the Rafale M—a remarkable step, as this model has so far been used exclusively by the French Navy. These are also the first Rafale Ms to be newly built since 2017.
Geopolitical relevance and military signaling effect
India's decision to upgrade both its air force and navy with Rafale aircraft is not only of technical but also of geopolitical significance. It underscores the ongoing strategic partnership between Paris and New Delhi—an axis that is also evident in other areas of defense cooperation, such as submarine construction and space.
Given the increasing tensions with China along the Himalayan border and the maritime competition in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea, India is sending a clear signal to its partners and competitors. The Rafale acquisition is a visible symbol of its ambition to not only keep pace with the regional power but to lead the way.
However, the actual impact of this military upgrade will depend on how efficiently the new systems are integrated and how sustainably training and operational readiness can be ensured. The expected visit of French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu to India in April 2025 could already bring about the signing of the contract for the naval order.
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