The Ryanair Group wants to significantly expand its fleet by the 2034 financial year. We currently have 537 machines. In around ten years there should be 800 units, although it is currently planned that these will all come from the manufacturer Boeing.
At the most recent investor day, Ryanair presented its fleet strategy, which takes the large Boeing 737 Max 10 order into account. In the 2034 financial year, the company plans to operate 290 Boeing 737-800s, 210 B737-Max-200s and 300 B737-Max-10s. The gradual reduction of the current backbone, the B737-800, is scheduled to begin in the 2028 financial year. From this point onwards, the aim is to gradually reduce the current 411 units to 290 units, which will be operated from 2034.
The strategy will have the most obvious impact on the subsidiary Lauda Europe. It currently has 28 Airbus A320s, which are considered somewhat “exotic” given the strong Boeing dominance in the group of companies. The Airbus fleet is to be reduced to 2027 units in the 23 financial year, then to 2028 units in 18, nine units in 2029 and one unit in 2030. From the 2031 financial year, Lauda Europe will no longer fly with the Airbus A320ceo.
Lauda Europe is gradually divesting itself of its A320 fleet
The introduction of the Airbus A320neo into the fleet is not yet completely off the table. However, there are currently no particularly intensive discussions between the Ryanair Group and the European aircraft manufacturer. Some time ago, CEO Michael O'Leary said that Lauda Europe would switch to Boeing 737s if an agreement was not reached with Airbus. The most recent fleet strategy presented by the group of companies strongly suggests that this is exactly what they are pursuing.
What is noteworthy in this context is that it has not yet been determined which operational flight operations should operate how many aircraft in the 2034 financial year. This is probably also due to the fact that there is competition within the company for aircraft and routes.
As of June 30, 2023, Ireland's Ryanair DAC had a fleet consisting of 308 Boeing 737s. These are used to operate bases at 46 bases. The Polish-based sister company Buzz had 64 Boeing 737s in the first half of the year and is the operator of 14 bases. Malta-based Malta Air had 158 Boeing 737s and 33 bases. Lauda Europe, with which it shares the company headquarters in Pieta, is much smaller: 28 Airbus A320s, which are stationed at five airports.
Ryanair sees potential for 80 additional aircraft in Germany
In connection with the fleet growth, the logical question arises as to where these machines should be used. Interestingly, Ryanair also sees great potential in the German market, which is currently being harshly criticized due to high costs. The aim is to increase the presence by 2024 stationed machines by 80. They currently have a market share of nine percent. They want to increase this to 30 percent.
Ryanair seems to see particularly great growth opportunities in Spain, where it has a 24 percent market share. The aim is to expand the locally stationed fleet by 130 machines and increase the market share to 40 percent. The situation is similar in the United Kingdom, where they want to deploy 100 additional aircraft in order to be able to have 35 percent of the cake in the future.
In Ireland they want to increase from 20 percent to 60 percent with the help of 65 additional jets. In Italy they currently hold 38 percent and want to station 50 more machines in order to have around 50 percent market share. In Poland, Ryanair intends to deploy 25 additional aircraft to increase from 26 percent to 50 percent. 30 more machines are planned for Portugal, so that they are aiming for a market share of 40 percent.
10 additional aircraft are distributed across the remaining “top 90 markets”. Overall, the aim is to improve from 14 percent to 30 percent. The bottom line is that there is potential for 525 additional machines in the markets mentioned. Whether Ryanair can implement its ambitious growth plans as announced is a completely different matter.
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