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Aer Lingus: Passenger limit at Dublin Airport complicates operations

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Irish airline Aer Lingus continues to face major operational challenges as an increase in the passenger limit at Dublin Airport (DUB) is not foreseeable in the near future.

This restriction will force the airline to adapt its fleet and routes and could even lead to an Airbus A330 being grounded. These developments follow a lengthy dispute between airlines and the relevant Irish authorities over the strict limitation of passenger capacity at Ireland's main airport.

Background of the passenger limit

The restrictions at Dublin Airport date back to a decision made in 2007 when Ireland's An Bord Pleanála, the state planning authority, set a capacity limit for the newly developed Terminal 2. Together with Terminal 1, the airport is limited to a total passenger number of 32 million per year.

This regulation is intended to prevent the airport from exceeding the acceptable capacity limit for the surrounding Dublin metropolitan area. Despite steadily increasing demand, these restrictions have caused increasing tensions in recent years, with airlines and industry associations such as Ryanair and the US airline lobby organisation Airlines for America (A4A) pushing for the regulation to be relaxed.

Consequences for Aer Lingus and the fleet

Aer Lingus is one of the airlines directly affected by the restrictions. The Irish airline is forced to reduce its flight connections and possibly ground one of its Airbus A330 aircraft, as the passenger cap severely limits the need for unrestricted use of these aircraft. In a recent video message, Lynne Embleton, CEO of Aer Lingus, told employees that the airline would have to consider adjusting its capacity as the cap at Dublin Airport remains in place. This restriction is forcing the company to reduce certain flight routes and adjust fleet planning.

Another possible step to reduce costs is a hiring freeze and voluntary redundancies to avoid extensive job cuts. The operational pressure to adapt has also led Aer Lingus to rethink the route network of its A320 fleet. For example, in January 2025, 22 fewer flights will be offered on the route from Dublin to Bristol (BRS), while the connections from Dublin to London Heathrow (LHR) will be reduced by weekly flights over the same period.

Legal disputes over the upper limit

The dispute over the capacity limit has also occupied the Irish judiciary. The Irish High Court recently decided to give Aer Lingus and other airlines the opportunity to challenge the cap in court.

The ruling gives airlines hope for a judicial review of the capacity plan of the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA), which had reaffirmed this limitation for the 2025 summer season. It remains to be seen whether the judiciary will ease the situation in this matter, allowing airlines to implement their business models without restrictions.

The economic significance of capacity limitation

Ryanair, Europe's largest low-cost airline, has argued for years that capacity restrictions are hampering Dublin Airport's growth potential and, as a result, the Irish economy. Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, has repeatedly sharply criticised the restrictions, arguing that Dublin could grow more strongly as a central hub for European and transatlantic flights if capacity reflected real demand. Increasing capacity could make the airport a more internationally competitive hub and consolidate Ireland's position in international air traffic.

Future prospects for Aer Lingus and Dublin Airport

With the cap still in place and a court decision not expected until the future, Aer Lingus faces a challenging 2024/25 winter season. The limited capacity requires a proactive adjustment of flight offerings to maintain profitability and offset the potential decline in passenger numbers.

In addition to the fleet adjustments, Aer Lingus is also pursuing projects to improve the service offering. For example, the lounge at London Heathrow Airport has been renovated and has recently been offering customers an expanded choice of catering options. These improvements are an important step to optimise the customer experience and strengthen competitiveness despite the Dublin cap.

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