City Air Terminal (Photo: Jan Gruber).
editor
Last update
Give a coffee
Information should be free for everyone, but good journalism costs a lot of money.
If you enjoyed this article, you can check Aviation.Direct voluntary invite for a cup of coffee.
In doing so, you support the journalistic work of our independent specialist portal for aviation, travel and tourism with a focus on the DA-CH region voluntarily without a paywall requirement.
If you did not like the article, we look forward to your constructive criticism and/or your comments either directly to the editor or to the team at with this link or alternatively via the comments.
Your
Aviation.Direct team

Aviation recovery: where is the journey going?

Advertising
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Aviation has not yet recovered from the corona pandemic and is now also confronted with the effects of the Ukraine war. It is not yet foreseeable how far-reaching the international consequences of Russia's warlike actions will be, but the situation is already complicated, especially in the direction of Asia.

Most airports and airlines are optimistic about Easter and the summer of 2022, as booking numbers are promising westbound. In Asia, the situation is a little different, as Luis Felipe de Oliveira, Director General of Airports Council International, explained during an aviation conference in Cluj, Romania. For example, Singapore's volume remains around 15 percent of pre-crisis levels. One of the reasons for this is that the entry and quarantine regulations in many Asian countries are restrictive. A blatant counter-example is said to be Mexico: The industry there was not only able to recover, but is even 40 percent higher than the same period in 2019.

In general, according to de Oliveira, air traffic in large countries with a single health authority is recovering much faster than in Europe, for example. For 2022, he expects 70 percent of the volume of 2019 for international flights and 88 percent for domestic flights. However, there will be strong regional differences.

Canada removes PCR submission requirement

Since Canada will lift the obligation to submit negative PCR results as of April 1, 2022, a sharp increase in passenger numbers is to be expected. Luis Felipe de Oliveira, who lives in this country himself, said, among other things, that the costs for PCR tests in many countries are so high that they are simply not affordable for family holidays and often even exceed the ticket costs. In the meantime, it has also been shown that lockdowns and restrictive entry regulations were ineffective and did not solve the problems.

The ACI boss does not expect a complete recovery, i.e. reaching the traffic performance of 2019, before 2024. For domestic flights he assumes 2024, for international connections it could even take up to 2025. However, the market has changed significantly and in different directions. For example, airlines would now serve routes that did not exist before Corona and, on the other hand, passengers book at extremely short notice. In general, de Oliveira suspects that the number of passengers worldwide will double within the next 20 years. It would therefore be particularly important for the industry to get away from fossil fuels.

The Vice President of IATA responsible for Europe, Rafael Schvartzman, initially said at the aviation conference in Cluj that he supported the decision by the Romanian government to lift all corona measures. This would be a good example that other European countries will hopefully soon follow. In general, however, the pandemic has shown that it is high time that more European and international coordination and harmonization is needed.

IATA Vice President calls for international harmonization of regulations

According to Schvartzman, aviation is a “global business and the rules have to be standardized and harmonized”. International cooperation between governments should be improved so that the industry has equal opportunities worldwide. The manager also assumes that there will be further pandemics. “Health authorities around the world need to prepare for this,” said Schvartzman. 

In any case, the corona pandemic is the most serious crisis in aviation to date. The Ukraine war and the associated airspace closures are very bad for the industry, because the financial situation of many airlines is still very tense. It is to be expected that some connections will be lost because they are simply no longer economically viable.

Europe's connectivity suffers from Corona and the Ukraine war

This could also have an impact on the connectivity of Europe. According to Schvartzman, Europe was the region of the world best connected to the rest of the world in 2019. At the moment there are still major problems, because many important connections are still missing, especially on long-haul routes. The Ukraine war complicates the situation, especially towards Asia and Japan. It must be a high priority that the war be ended as soon as possible.

Airlines in Western Europe are currently registering significantly better booking figures than in Eastern Europe. In the West, some carriers have occupancy rates of around 90 percent. According to Schvartzman, the booking figures for Easter and summer 2022 give reason for optimism in the area of ​​private travellers. Business travelers are still well below expectations, but Corona has led to private individuals increasingly booking more expensive classes such as premium economy and business. 

In general, governments in Europe still have a lot to do to be able to support the industry in its recovery. Rafael Schvartzman reminded that Single European Sky is particularly important for the airlines and must finally be promoted. There is still chaos with regard to entry and quarantine regulations, as some countries continue to only allow non-EU passengers to enter the country against quarantine or not at all. 

Advertising

Leave a Comment

Your e-mail address will not be published. Required fields are marked with * marked

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Advertising