At the end of 2024, air traffic in Germany is experiencing an unexpectedly sharp decline in passenger numbers. In the last two weeks of November, passenger numbers fell by 2,6 percent compared to the previous year, which was already showing weak figures. Particularly alarming is the so-called recovery rate, which measures the recovery compared to pre-pandemic figures. While it was still at 91,4 percent at the end of the summer flight schedule, it fell to below 75 percent - the worst figure since March, when strikes significantly affected air traffic.
There are many reasons for this decline. On the one hand, regulatory factors such as the particularly high air traffic tax in Germany are putting pressure on airlines, causing them to cancel routes or move aircraft abroad. On the other hand, general economic uncertainty has led to a decline in both tourist and business travel. German airports are particularly vulnerable in the winter months, which are traditionally considered to have low margins.
Ralph Beisel, CEO of the airport association ADV, sharply criticizes the high taxes in Germany. In his opinion, Germany is at a great disadvantage compared to other countries. He calls for the abolition of the air traffic tax, as has happened in Sweden, in order to reduce the competitive disadvantage. Beisel emphasizes that there is no problem of demand, but rather of supply: connections that can no longer be operated economically from German airports are increasingly being cancelled.
A structural problem for Germany as an aviation location?
The development clearly shows that this is a structural problem that could have long-term effects. The loss of connections will force travelers to switch to alternative airports abroad. This could lead to a downward trend in the long term, as fewer passengers and airlines will serve the German market. This could also have negative consequences for the economy, as an efficient air transport infrastructure is essential for international trade and tourism.
The coming months and further developments in the winter flight schedule will show whether the trend can be reversed or whether Germany as a location needs a fundamental readjustment of its framework conditions.
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