In Italy, people are already preparing for the fact that the planned takeover of Ita Airways by Lufthansa could fail. Apparently the Kranich Group is not prepared to make particularly large concessions in order to be able to buy out Alitalia's successor.

The EU Commission has repeatedly expressed that it has significant concerns. These not only affect air traffic between Germany and Italy, but also long-haul business. This is not just about flights operated by Ita Airways or the Lufthansa Group, but also codeshare agreements with Star Alliance partners such as United Airlines.

This could mean that the competition authorities have opened a kind of “Pandora’s box” because the codeshare agreements are considered extremely important for Lufthansa. Accordingly, it is very unlikely that anyone will be willing to make concessions in this area. The long-haul business between Europe and North America is considered Lufthansa's “bread and butter business” because it earns very well here due to high demand. Any concessions that would have to be made in order to be able to take over Ita Airways would hit the group hard financially.

The Reuters agency reports, citing a person familiar with the matter, that the concessions that Lufthansa offered to address the concerns of European competition watchdogs do not go far enough for the EU Commission. It is now expected in Italy that the in-depth examination could show that the deal will either be prohibited or that it will be subject to such high conditions that Lufthansa could finally lose interest.

It is already being said in private that Lufthansa will get out of the deal if the costs that could result from concessions and requirements exceed the actual benefits. It is assumed that the EU Commission could issue a warning around mid-March 2024, which would then go into more detail about any requirements that would have to be met.

A plan B has been prepared in Rome for several weeks. However, the shipping company MSC has again rejected the offer. If Lufthansa's entry is not completed, everything would go back to the start. The government would then have to re-tender the sale and given the history, that could take a very long time.